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Older voters could decide New York City mayoral race, poll shows

A two-candidate race could make it a toss-up

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Mark Huffman
Reporter

Mark Huffman has covered consumer issues since 2004, with a special focus on protecting and empowering older adults. A former news correspondent for the Associated Press Radio Network, Westwood One, and ConsumerAffairs, Mark brings decades of journalistic experience to RetirementLiving.com. He is passionate about giving consumers a voice and helping them make informed decisions. Mark has also created educational content, including Senior Scam Alert, a video resource designed to help seniors recognize and avoid fraud. He holds a B.A. from the University of Kentucky and lives with his family in Richmond, Virginia.
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Key Insights

  • Zohran Mamdani leads NYC mayoral race with 43.2% support, according to new AARP/Gotham Poll.
  • Andrew Cuomo gains ground as older voters remain largely undecided.
  • Cost of living and health care top concerns for voters age 50 and up — a group poised to decide the election.

New York State Assembly Member Zohran Mamdani continues to lead the race for New York City mayor, and many pundits have already conceded the contest to the young Democratic Socialist. He holds  43.2% support among likely general election voters, according to a new poll from AARP New York and Gotham Polling & Analytics. 

The survey finds former Governor Andrew Cuomo in second place with 28.9%, followed by Guardian Angels founder Curtis Sliwa at 19.4%, and 8.4% undecided or favoring another candidate.

Yet while Mamdani maintains a strong lead in the multi-candidate field, the race tightens considerably in a head-to-head matchup with Cuomo. When voters are asked to choose only between Mamdani and Cuomo, Mamdani’s advantage shrinks to 44.6% versus Cuomo’s 40.7%, a gap within the poll’s ±4.0% margin of error.

Older voters emerge as the decisive bloc

The poll underscores the pivotal role older New Yorkers are likely to play in determining the city’s next mayor. Nearly eight in ten undecided voters (78%) are age 50 or older, and 49% of voters 65+ remain undecided — significantly higher than younger age groups.

“Once again, New York’s older voters are poised to decide this election,” said Beth Finkel, AARP New York State Director. “Voters age 50 and older make up the vast majority of those still undecided, and as the most reliable voting bloc, they will determine who leads this city.”

Older voters’ concerns focus squarely on affordability and access to health care, Finkel noted. Affordability is a major theme of Mamdani’s campaign.

“Older New Yorkers are feeling the strain of rising costs and limited housing options,” she said. “Their priorities are clear: affordability, safety, and leadership that restores confidence in New York’s direction.”

Shifts after Adams’ exit

The new results follow the withdrawal of Mayor Eric Adams from the race earlier this fall. Support once directed toward Adams — who had drawn roughly 9% to 10% in the August AARP/Gotham Poll — has largely migrated to Cuomo, who has seen a modest uptick in support. Mamdani and Sliwa also posted small gains since the summer.

If Cuomo were to exit the race, Sliwa’s support would rise sharply to 31.5%, suggesting that Adams and Cuomo shared overlapping constituencies within moderate and independent circles.

Across all age groups, the cost of living remains the dominant concern, cited by nearly two-thirds of respondents — a two-point increase since August. Public safety and housing affordability ranked next on voters’ priority lists.

While 55.7% of respondents said New York City is on the “wrong track,” a slight uptick from August, optimism about the city’s future has also grown. More voters now say they are “very optimistic” about New York’s prospects under new leadership.

“The decisive factor in this race may be the older voters who haven’t yet made up their minds,” said Stephen Graves, president of Gotham Polling & Analytics. “If the contest narrows to two leading candidates, the 50-plus electorate, by far the most reliable voting bloc, will likely determine who becomes the next mayor of New York City.”