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Life expectancy has taken a step backward, study finds

In the future, fewer people will live to be 100

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Mark Huffman
Reporter

Mark Huffman has covered consumer issues since 2004, with a special focus on protecting and empowering older adults. A former news correspondent for the Associated Press Radio Network, Westwood One, and ConsumerAffairs, Mark brings decades of journalistic experience to RetirementLiving.com. He is passionate about giving consumers a voice and helping them make informed decisions. Mark has also created educational content, including Senior Scam Alert, a video resource designed to help seniors recognize and avoid fraud. He holds a B.A. from the University of Kentucky and lives with his family in Richmond, Virginia.
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Photo by Fellipe Ditadi on Unsplash

Key Insights

  • A new study finds that none of the generations born after 1939 will live to 100 on average.
  • Life expectancy gains in high-income countries slowed sharply after the early 20th century.
  • Experts say governments and individuals may need to adjust retirement and health planning accordingly.

For much of the 20th century, people in high-income countries saw their life expectancy rise dramatically with each new generation. But according to a new study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, those gains have slowed, and today’s younger generations are unlikely to reach the milestone of living to 100 on average.

The research, led by Héctor Pifarré i Arolas of the University of Wisconsin-Madison’s La Follette School of Public Affairs, José Andrade of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, and Carlo Giovanni Camarda of the Institut national d’études démographiques, examined mortality data across 23 wealthy, low-mortality countries. 

Using six different forecasting models, they tracked how life expectancy evolved from 1900 through the 20th century and projected future trends.

Early gains were extraordinary

Between 1900 and 1938, life expectancy surged. A child born in 1900 in a high-income country could expect to live around 62 years. Just 38 years later, average life expectancy had jumped to 80 years. That translated to an increase of about five and a half months with each successive generation.

These rapid gains were largely driven by dramatic reductions in infant and child mortality, thanks to advances in medicine, sanitation, and overall living standards.

For those born after 1939, the pace slowed considerably. Depending on the forecasting method, gains in life expectancy fell to just two and a half to three and a half months per generation. By the time researchers projected lifespans for people born in 1980, the conclusion was clear: they will not live to 100 on average.

“Even if adult survival improved twice as fast as we predict, life expectancy would still not match the rapid increases seen in the early 20th century,” Pifarré i Arolas explained.

What This Means for the Future

Researchers caution that forecasts are never certain — pandemics, new medical breakthroughs, or other unforeseen changes could alter the picture. Still, the study offers critical insights for governments and individuals alike.

With longer lifespans no longer guaranteed, healthcare systems, pension funds, and social policies may need to adapt. For individuals, slower growth in life expectancy could influence decisions about savings, retirement age, and long-term planning.

“None of the cohorts in our study will reach 100 years on average, Andrade said. “This decline is largely due to the fact that past surges in longevity were driven by improvements in survival at very young ages.”

In short, while we’re living longer than our ancestors, the era of big leaps in life expectancy appear to be behind us.